Showing posts with label Study. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Study. Show all posts

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Common Mistakes New DP Traders make

This post i am writing for people who started practicing DPTrading recently. I am going to write about all mistakes we have done from the time of trading this method. I hope you find it useful and save effort/time/money as you can pin point few mistakes you making currently, also you can avoid doing the mistakes we have done in past.

1.  Trying to frame strict rules or making a rule based system out of DP Concepts.

This is the biggest mistake people make. What we learnt from NiftyNirvana is all DOT's, we need to make a picture out of it (read as Trade Strategy/Plan). Let me elaborate further,, NiftyNirvana has given us below DOT's.

   a) DP's such as PDH, PDL, PDC, BRN's, RN's, DH, DL, DO
   b) Patterns BO, BPB, BOF, TST, FTC
   c) Ranges
 
Now how you can trade? big mistake new people do is trading all setup's at all DP's.
That is correct way at all, today BPB of PDH may given 100 points & next 4-5 days PDH can be barb wired. Some times BO will work, some times BPB is better choice instead of jumping by BO. Some times BOF pattern wont give chance to enter by not giving a swing low to enter,, some times it does picture perfect pattern allowing entry.

So, my point is.. don't frame rules with DP and Setup's. We have to be very flexible and take decisions of how to treat a DP and which setup to trade,, depend on context under which price action happening right now. PRICE READ is utmost important.

Now the Q, how to read PA ?  Well, this is where developing trade strategy comes. Design a trade strategy step wise as per your experience,, but make sure it follow below step wise procedure. That should act as Blue print for you to how to start your day and end your day.

 Step 1 : How trend is in Day T/F
 Step 2 : Defining Market Structure for the day, before market opens
 Step 3 : Observe where market opened, how IR formed
 Step 4 : Write down you potential trade setup's at a nearest DP
 Step 5 : Once approached DP and forming pattern you wanted, start knowing entry and exits and be 
              ready with quantity to trade
Step 6 : If market doing some thing else than what you anticipated, change your view as market says
             and update your trade plan accordingly.
Step 7 : Document your trades into trade journal

This is how we have to form a systematic approach. if you doing this mistake right now, you can rectify by designing a Trade Strategy as i briefly explained.



2. Over Trading

Below are possible reasons one may do over trading. my suggestion to overcome also i mentioned below.

a) Missing sharp move at opening bell  ::
    When trend is strong, we get to see majority move happen through gaps or move happen in initial
    5-10 minutes. Don't be in a hurry,, market will give opportunity to get into trade with the trend
    after doing PB in opposite direction. Sit patiently till then. Nobody can catch all the moves. Take a
    Color Print of your Trade Strategy document and pin to your monitor. Follow it religiously.

b) Unrealistic expectations of ROI
    This mostly happen if you form opinions from people who lure by posting heavy MTM's in social
    media. I suggest to delete your social accounts or open them after market hours only.
    Being a discretionary method, the outcome of DPTrading is purely depend on factors like,,
    Practical experience of individual, capital, emotional balance of individual, physiological
    advantages, Ability to assess direction quickly and get into trade plan, Ability to be flexible
    and change plan as market changes its direction, Ability to sit through when trend happening
    in study manner, ability to take partial profits and taking re-entries, Taking advantage from trade
    journal to identify which setup's you doing well and keeping you trade strategy updated
   
    List goes endless,, you see many factors influencing the outcome right.. then how you can expect
    you will be profitable just by reading a book or doing paper trades of historical charts.
    The real battle starts after you started taking trades on your own.

    IMO have no expectations at all, if you can protect capital in initial months, consider you did great
    job,, as the time goes you will turn profitable and grow further. Let the sstrulling phase take on its
    own course. nobody can escape it.

3.  Comparing yourself with other DPTraders

    I have suggested solution for it already above,, keep you away from social media during market
    hours. Stand on your own foot. Only thing should matter to you is your own trade log and trade
    ledger.
   
    All you need is a 50 page eBook of Nifty Nirvana, a testing phase for you when you started
    practicing DP method, An uptodated trade journal, A trading strategy designed out of your own
    screen time, experience, trade journal,self belief and conviction on yourself finally.
   
    My wife used to wait for SMART TRADER post every day when he was active and comparing
    her trades,, but she always end up with more confusion and making mistakes again.
    She turned better trader only after being self dependent and viewing other's blogs only as a
    reference but not trying to being a copy/replica of other trader.
   
    Trading is a self game,, you have to find out what work;s for you and how it works for you.
   

4. Dealing with DP even after it becoming irrelevant
   
    Best part of DPTrading is it's ability to use in any kind of market & specially it wont force us
    to stay away during side way market like most of TA Systems (where whipsaws keep go on)
    but one major what people do while trading side way market is, not removing a DP which lost
    its relevance.
   
    By the definition, we expect price to push away from DP and we try to trade in that direction
    right! now when we see price revolving around same DP, ,making swing point high and low
    then we anticipate it forming BW,, in such cases you should be able to guess ASAP and mark
    DP as less relevance or much better you can remove from chart space as well.

   In initial phase, common occurrence of a pattern for DP Trader is,, gaining well on a trend day and
   loosing same on couple of range days. When we identify early that DP loosing its relevance, give
   less importance to it and avoid trades from that location. that way your chart will be clear
   and also you will look for better trade location.


5. Not maintaining Trade Journal

    I consider this task of maintaining a trade journal is more important than taking trades itself!
    If you don't spend effort in understanding how your trading journey going on,, how can you
    identify your mistakes and rectify them?

    My suggestion would be design an excel template with all columns like instrument, trade, quantity,
    entry, exit, RR, P/L, reason took a trade, mistake done, weekly introspection, monthly report,
    Time vs cumulative P/L graph, keep a check on costs incurred etc.

    Treat trade journal as a mirror image of your trading face :)


6. Not focusing on Price Reading ability

    This is most underrated topic IMO. but this is sole factor decide outcome of your trades over
    a period of time.

    Let me elaborate,, we all know during uptrend we buy at RL's,, down trend sell range high's,,
    fading range extremes,, stay away from channeled moves,, all these are theory concepts.
   
    But in reality,, how many instances market will give clear indication of trend for intraday?
    Many a times, you will start a day with negative bias,, reverse from some DP and then turn range
    bound, fail at higher level and resume down trend,, again turn range bound.. and from 2:30 it starts
    bouncing from PDL and close above 2 day high,, and turning day trend also UP.

   So, how will you read this PA if don't develop flexible mindset to change views as per price
   movement and at the same time filter counter trend setup's as per strength of location, space to
   move, whether critical mass get TRAP'ped etc.

   EOD, every thing looks clean and your mind automatically see 2 setup's which worked out of 10.
   and you may think, this is so easy to trade. But reality is way different,, unless you develop a
   trade strategy for yourself, flexibility to change views, filter potential better setup's from mediocre
 
   Also as i stressed out already, your improvement as a DPTrader will be depend on how much
   quality time you spent in things like pre market preparation, trade journal, maintaining focus
   during market hours, having a structured SCALE UP plan etc.

   Let all your effort channeled in direction of improving PRICE READING ability over the time
   all things will fall inline automatically!


7. Not Knowing which setup's / Days difficult to execute 

     I personally not trading TST, FTC any time after realizing they are difficult to take as per
     my psychology.  Similarly, you also make a list of setup's or days wont keep you in peace.
     Example : TST, FTC patterns, Channeled days (as soon you realized/seen it), gap of 100+
     points, Event day's, Expiry Days.
   
     My suggestion for new people is to stay away on event days, expiry days
     And there will be few days where you have to hold emotions and sit tight,, like a gap of 100+
     happened,, wait for decent PB till good DP


That's all from my side. You can comment if you want to provide any other from your experience.

Things required to make consistent and decent money for living through "DPTrading"

What all things required to make consistent and decent money for living through #DPTrading


  • Capital from which you can make 5% per month which is enough to cater daily needs, investments etc.  Ideally speaking, 5L is decent enough for a debt free person.
  • Trading strategy derived out of your OWN experiences,, being a discretionary method, there are no fixed rules.
  • Over the months/years of real time trade logs generated,, identify or filter the setups you confidently executing and preconditions you look for.
  • More than setups, price read is important. Develop a trade strategy which lets you start with identification of trend,,, till exit the trade.
  • Make a flow chart kind of visual tool initially, which helps you to channel your thoughts into actions.
  • Money management rules.. it could be 0.5% or 1% or 2%,, depend on your capital size, your experience, quality of setup etc.
  • Analyze yourself and stick to what your mind says
  • Strong desire to make money,, but at same time not running behind. Patience to wait till price comes to you is the key skill to acquire.
  • Never do the mistake of learning from EOD charts or analysis.. IMO DPTrading can't be learnt by back testing or EOD analysis.. as this game is completely depend on      people's emotions.. which we calling as patterns and trading them. After market hours, everything will be perfect!
  • Managing focus and stick to your views or trade setups is more important. If you run behind other people views in social media (who following different system or see chart in different way),, it will lead to disaster soon.
  • Ask your trade journal every week,, why you making loosing trades continuously  or missing good trades very often.. ultimate truth is your own ledger and trade journal. Do RCA (root cause analysis) and find out mitigation plan. 
  • Keep improving your skills by analyzing how you can maximize your gains or cutting down losses quickly.
  • Depend on individual personality,, few comfortable in letting profits run with out partial booking. Few having quick thinking and quick hands prefer to make partial exits and re entries. Find out what kind of person you are & stick to what works for you.
  • You need to cut down position sizing when your threshold limit for loosing streak reached instead of revenge trading.   Ex : Cutting down position size to half of usual,, after 3-4 loss trades in a row. All these should part of TRADING PLAN
  • Last but not least,, DPTrading can be learnt by doing for longer time only. No amount of reading or back testing or paper trading will help
  • Because this method can be visualized, analyzed, traded differently by different person. You need to find out which ways works better for you by doing it consistently over the period of time. 


PS: these are personal views,, derived out of my experience of trading this method.

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Trading Top Gainer/Looser Stocks to catch early morning momentum

Why we think trading Top Gainer/Loser is wise idea?

ü  Our observation for top gainer/loser… Big players take position which they want to move up as soon as market opens… they mostly buy pre-open which result gaps.

ü  Overnight News may attract lot of order flow during open.

ü  Range bound for last N days... breakthrough in form of Gap or fast move in first 10-15 minutes generally & continue gradual trending move henceforth.. If momentum keeps going.

ü  Sometimes we get counter trend gap up for stocks in downtrend in higher time frame... with counter trend gap’s we can expect short covering intraday… (Or) if such gap is to TRAP intraday players, my observation is that even though they opened counter trend gap, they tend to move in direction of higher time frame quickly. In that case our trade won’t get triggered.

From month of MAY, he started trading in stocks with 10% of capital. It going very well.

Let me summarize the process.

Steps:

1.       Add nifty50 stocks as watch list
2.       At 9:16, Sort by High to low and make a note of top 5 stocks,, similarly note top 5 looser
3.       Quickly open all 10 charts
4.       Go through one by one... if Nifty seems in Uptrend,, look at top 5 gainer charts first
5.       Filter stocks which satisfying any of condition

·         Stock broke out of range formed over last 3 or >3 days
·         Stock which is in down trend and today opened gap up, if gapped above PDH much better
·         Stock which is in downtrend and got quick rejection from PDL or any higher time frame support during open time
·         Stock which is in good uptrend and currently trading above PDH
·         News driven gap move -- coupling with any of above condition

6.       Decide position sizing based on risk involved in trade
7.       Pick short candidates in similar fashion as described in step 5

Refer below post for visual idea


Basically we are using same PA concepts what learnt from SMART TRADER.

Selection of right stocks to monitor at right time and with right mindset is the KEY here.

That selection we achieved by Sorting NIFTY stocks at opening time & mindset to decide which one has potential to move in trending direction,, which one may not move is something we applying based on learning’s from Nifty Nirvana & own experience of judging PA.

Below is the statement i would like to share (just to inspire DP Traders that we can trade stocks as well successfully with DP method).

 I generally don't like MTM showoff, as that is the way majority of fake people do fishing. i am making an exception today.



We will continue trading stocks with increased quantity for every 2 weeks of GREEN MTM.
Till today traded with 10% of capital only. From monday going to trade with 20% of capital as we got 2 weeks of green mtm. I hope this momentum gets going as we SCALE UP :)

Successful stock trading in early morning keeps you motivating for rest of day and also you will be fit physiologically to skip not so good setups in Nifty/Bank Nifty. One Shot Two Birds!

Friday, March 16, 2018

Trading Stocks by Range Break Out Logic

From last one week i am doing paper trades in stocks (i have picked around 20 into my watch list)
Today i wanted to pen down the process i am following so far. If you find any thing useful, i am glad.. This post is basically for documenting my own thought process

IDEA

I have tried different ways like PDH/PDL Cross, EMA Cross, Golden Ratio trades etc.. found none of them to my satisfaction. I am ending up too much of time spent in monitoring and analyzing rather than trading.. during market hours. Also data feed issues and AFL run's gave me extra trouble.

Then i have decided to stick with EOD analysis.. and come up with Levels to monitor for next day for  each of stock. 

Steps

Step 1: Out of 20 stocks in my list, i am manually going through each of them EOD and identifying the one's trading in range recently..  Marking RH and RL levels in Chart and in an Excel.

Step 2: Next day morning put ALERT's in Fyers One desktop software for all stocks filtered for the day. 

Step 3: Once you get Alert pop up notification window (with sound), Open Chart and see how price behaving once broke out... Adding to our existing DP knowledge we can take trade decisions.
i.e. BPB Long (Or) BOF Short.


Pro's

1. No extra time spent during market hours
2. If Nifty not offering any good trades,, we can still look to gain by trading in stocks
3. Chosen stocks are picked from Top 25 weight age stocks in Nifty index. Slippage should be less compared to other stocks.

Con's

1. As of now i am not monitoring stocks in Trend mode,, might be missing some good picks. 


Example:

BHARTIARTL Trading in a RANGE for last 3 Days





Today after breaking RH.. there was good BOF setup formed with Fluid below.. which moved well





PS: Suggestions are welcome.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

High Probability Trade Signal Examples

                                                                        Examaple 1 : 

ITC in down trend
Ranged during yesterday closing time
Opened near to PDL; followed by nice pin bar with long tail indicating bullish pressure
Professional Entry is above Pin Bar with Stop below DL; easy to scratch if DH not crossed
Another good entry is above BO bar high





Example 2

Good long entry after yesterday's momentum getting extended



                                                                         
                                                                            Example 3

Entries with weak pull backs give nice RR than entry below swing points ... confirmation is just Psychological .. with practice and experience we can make this!



                                                                             Example 4

We can trade momentum moves after news as well; with this kind of setup's trade become high probability winning candidates... if risk is not in limit.. one can trade in CASH as well




                                                                               Example 5

Fluid always high probable; specially when rejection seen at powerful levels like PDH and PDL



Professional Entry Vs Retailer Entry




Friday, August 4, 2017

Playing Ranges

Like below, will mark ranges and potential trade setups on nifty chart, from Monday... To focus better and stick to the plan.



Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Check List -- Before Initiating Trade

QuestionAnswerRemarks
Day TrendBearishBullish or Bearish or Sideways
Initial BiasBullishBullish, If DO is above yesterday closing range & nifty formed IR above yesterday close range.. viceversa for bearish
Check if any DP's at/around IRYesIf yes, trade DP's
Which pattern you are going trade?BOF of BRNBO, BOF, BPB, TST, FTC
Check space for tradeYesatleast 10 points to move for the trade, i.e. FTA 10 points away
Is Critical Mass favouring your trade?YesHow day traders are positioned? Are they in profit? When they are going to book profits? Where they will panic? Who is in control of the Market?
Is Order Flow favours your trade?YesWhere are the orders? Where other traders will keep their stops? Where we should enter to ride these orders?
Are you risking more than 10 points?NoInitial SL should not be more than 10 points
Note:

After trade initiated, manage it by hiding SL behind DP's, Swing high/low, Flip Zones.